2026 Critical Thinking Session 1: Scientific Uncertainty & Probabilistic Reasoning. #
How do you address scientific uncertainty when investigating claims about air quality?
Scientific investigations try to answer questions about the natural world, such as identifying components of Earth’s atmosphere and how air quality affects health. This can involve a certain amount of scientific uncertainty. Uncertainty in science can come from incomplete information or scientific errors.
This workshop will demonstrate an activity you can use in the classroom, helping students learn to identify uncertainty and errors in science. By recognising these uncertainties and errors, students learn how to reduce them and become more sure of their findings. They use probabilistic reasoning to make predictions, such as the likelihood of wildfire spread. Students also look for meaningful signals in data and understand how false positives and false negatives can influence decisions.
Resources: Unit 3: Scientific Uncertainty & Probabilistic Reasoning – Scientific Thinking for All: A Toolkit
View the workshop recording here.